I sold JASO today since it outperformed its peer today. Load a small amount (300) of SOLF. If tomorrow solar holds, we will be seeing a decent pre-ER run soon.
I am a little surprised that the market didn't sell off into Chrysler's news, and the delay of stress test result didn't stir anything up either. As many expect, I too think tomorrow maybe a gap down. I loaded 100 FAZ at 8.36 and may clear them tomorrow before market.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Solar time is coming... ...
Watch out for pre-ER runs, my picks are SOL, SOLF, and JASO. SOLF is famous for its pre-ER run, I was lucky to catch last two runs. I dont' expect this one will be as fabulous as the ones last year given the current solar product supply-over-demand situation. The revenue may be up but the profits will not be as pretty (if not ugly). Let's see what happens.
I missed the opportunity to load SOL today. I will hold on to JASO for now.
There will be plenty of opportunity to load, I don't want to chase high after FSLR's ER. This is like WFC's ER for Financial.
I missed the opportunity to load SOL today. I will hold on to JASO for now.
There will be plenty of opportunity to load, I don't want to chase high after FSLR's ER. This is like WFC's ER for Financial.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Bulls, you won
Seriously, the buying power of the bulls scared me, so bad that I moved up my stop to $65.3 (of course I got stopped out at the bottom of the day, again). One other reason that I don't want to hold short position for tomorrow is the GDP and Fed meetings. It's not gonna be pretty, for bears...
Bought 600 shares of JASO at $2.89.
Bought 600 shares of JASO at $2.89.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Strong support at 855 today
It's amazing how strong the 855 support was today. Although I am still bearish in intermediate term, I begin to worry a little bit now. SDS stop was set at 882. My original plan was to sell SDS in this week.
A wild thought, I think it takes one day which gap up but with closing red to start the next down turn (if any soon.)
A wild thought, I think it takes one day which gap up but with closing red to start the next down turn (if any soon.)
No more emotional trading
Looking back to my trading history, emotional trading has been probably the greatest enemy here. I will clear out UNG in the next few days. I have been doing some thinking and writting down some rules for trading. I think it's good to look at them once in a while for discipline purposes.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Lesson learned and some thoughts for this rally
First of all, I sold the JASO @ $3.23 and made a few bucks. Couldn't get a hold of SOL. Bought 100 X Natural gas ETFs UNG at $13.14. I will hold on to this for a while ( a few weeks to a couple months maybe?).
Anyways, I was thinking about this rally. It was really like the reversal of Feburary's downturn. The market keep heading south no matter what. Once in a while there was a rebounce, but it would be followed by a even bigger dip the next day. The market ignores any positive news (there weren't many, but still a few here and there). The market was way oversold, and it didn't matter. At that time, many people was waiting for a strong trigger, a positive trigger that is strong enough that would reverse the trend.
And there it came the Citi CEO's internal memo: CITI WAS MAKING PROFITS!!! and there it began...
Now it's kind of like what was happening two months ago, except that it's completely the opposite direction. The whole sentiment is so going north that it ignores any bad news. I thought the stress test results would give bulls some things to worry but it looks like I may be wrong. I guess if we don't have big + bad news, the market will stay above 780+. I am holding my SDS onto next Monday or Tuesday with a stop between 885. If the market rallies beyond that point, I will have to give up on bear for a while.
Next week the big news would be the Chrysler deal, unless the Fed jumps in again ... ...
Anyways, I was thinking about this rally. It was really like the reversal of Feburary's downturn. The market keep heading south no matter what. Once in a while there was a rebounce, but it would be followed by a even bigger dip the next day. The market ignores any positive news (there weren't many, but still a few here and there). The market was way oversold, and it didn't matter. At that time, many people was waiting for a strong trigger, a positive trigger that is strong enough that would reverse the trend.
And there it came the Citi CEO's internal memo: CITI WAS MAKING PROFITS!!! and there it began...
Now it's kind of like what was happening two months ago, except that it's completely the opposite direction. The whole sentiment is so going north that it ignores any bad news. I thought the stress test results would give bulls some things to worry but it looks like I may be wrong. I guess if we don't have big + bad news, the market will stay above 780+. I am holding my SDS onto next Monday or Tuesday with a stop between 885. If the market rallies beyond that point, I will have to give up on bear for a while.
Next week the big news would be the Chrysler deal, unless the Fed jumps in again ... ...
Bought 500 X JASO @ $3.10
Small position. Will not hold more than a week. This is in reaction to recent rebounce in Euro/USD.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Waiting and waiting
The market didn't hit 874 today with a high of 861. It looks like the down trend started to form. I almost added some SDS in after hour trading. However, it's not an excellent entry point at 843, and plus, I am more concerned with the possible earlier announcement of stress test results. It looks like Fed wanted to jump eagerly, and I don't want to gamble it.
During this rally, everytime the market was forming a top, some big news popped out: first, it was Fed announce pumping huge amount of money, then the bad-asset detail kicked in on the following Monday, then there was M2M and uptick short rule change, finally, WFC ER (not FED this time).
These events pretty much made up all my recent loss. Obviously, I am not good at gambling big events.
During this rally, everytime the market was forming a top, some big news popped out: first, it was Fed announce pumping huge amount of money, then the bad-asset detail kicked in on the following Monday, then there was M2M and uptick short rule change, finally, WFC ER (not FED this time).
These events pretty much made up all my recent loss. Obviously, I am not good at gambling big events.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Zig-Zag Zig-Zag
Like I said yesterday, we gonna see these kind of Zig-Zag with greater extent, which I believe is the charater of a local top. Tomorrow is WFC's and MS's ER, I don't wanna mess with them, so I will only enter SDS if the market is over 874 ( that's +3%). The chance of hitting that is not very high, but it's good to be conservative.
One good thing about these 2X, 3X ETF is that you can calculate almost exactly at what SP500 or XLF price you wanna go in.
I expect those solar ADRs to drop at least 15% , then I will think of getting in. I would rather miss a rally than being trapped.
One good thing about these 2X, 3X ETF is that you can calculate almost exactly at what SP500 or XLF price you wanna go in.
I expect those solar ADRs to drop at least 15% , then I will think of getting in. I would rather miss a rally than being trapped.
Monday, April 20, 2009
A top to this rally is near...
The market was bloody today. I wasn't expecting that much of a pull-back today. However, it sorta signals a top might be nearby though. Comparing to last May and August, this top will be similar as well. It won't be a sharp turning point, instead, it will be zig-zaging with a greater magnitude. Again, I will probably load some 3X long ETFs or 2X short ETFs when SP500 hits 820 or 890.
The releasing of stress test result is a killer. I start to really realize how much damage "rumors" or "uncertainties" could do to this market.
With so several intermediate-term indicator pointing to a big pull-back soon (if not crash), let's see how low it will go this time. It may start in less than 2 weeks... ...
The releasing of stress test result is a killer. I start to really realize how much damage "rumors" or "uncertainties" could do to this market.
With so several intermediate-term indicator pointing to a big pull-back soon (if not crash), let's see how low it will go this time. It may start in less than 2 weeks... ...
My worst trade ever
Last Friday, I made my personal worst trade ever. Bought 400 C at 4.46 premarket and left it open during the day. Lost $300 when I close out at $3.71.
This is purely undisciplined. Emotional trade, poor entry point, didn't close position timely.
I will be trading less in the coming two weeks. Doing too much day-trade made me lost the big picture and missed several good opportunities. I will go back to intermediate-term trading. I will still be using overbought/oversold signal for short term trading. I will enter only there's extreme situations.
I think the market is going to head to a clear direction very soon (after ER or after May 4th). A possible significant pull-back may be close.
This is purely undisciplined. Emotional trade, poor entry point, didn't close position timely.
I will be trading less in the coming two weeks. Doing too much day-trade made me lost the big picture and missed several good opportunities. I will go back to intermediate-term trading. I will still be using overbought/oversold signal for short term trading. I will enter only there's extreme situations.
I think the market is going to head to a clear direction very soon (after ER or after May 4th). A possible significant pull-back may be close.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
The market surprised me today
I was hoping FAS would touch $7 and activate my $7.18 limit order. However, after the initial drop, the buying power was way too strong.
I am expecting .spx would be in the range of 830~880 (maybe a little higher). I know a lot of people are expecting 800-850. I believe WFC pre-ER announcement is a very strong boost to this market in the ER season.
The FED's decision of releasing stress test result hurt BAC and C, obviously, at least for today. Again, it reminds the market that "some bank might still be bad". Now let's see how JPM's ER will be.
Now looking at CPC moving average. It's been very accurate in calling top and bottom ever since the financial crisis started in Fall 2007. However, it has not been accurate at all since this rally started. When was the last time this indicator not working? check 06 and 07... ...
I am expecting .spx would be in the range of 830~880 (maybe a little higher). I know a lot of people are expecting 800-850. I believe WFC pre-ER announcement is a very strong boost to this market in the ER season.
The FED's decision of releasing stress test result hurt BAC and C, obviously, at least for today. Again, it reminds the market that "some bank might still be bad". Now let's see how JPM's ER will be.
Now looking at CPC moving average. It's been very accurate in calling top and bottom ever since the financial crisis started in Fall 2007. However, it has not been accurate at all since this rally started. When was the last time this indicator not working? check 06 and 07... ...
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Bought 200 FAS at $7.52
The aftermarket price was not bad. I guess I like gambling a little too much ... ...
FAZ stopped out @ $9.6
Again, I need to learn when and where to set the stop.
I think this pull back is quite healthy, same old trick as last couple ones in recent weeks.
I am waiting the market to pull back a little more to long Financials.
Again, I am talking about day-trades.
About solar, I like JASO much more than SOL now. SOL has way too much inventories. In stabilized financial situation, SOL maybe just fine though. But who knows where the market will go after this ER season.
I couldn't find any good entry point for JASO since last Friday. I will wait patiently.
I think this pull back is quite healthy, same old trick as last couple ones in recent weeks.
I am waiting the market to pull back a little more to long Financials.
Again, I am talking about day-trades.
About solar, I like JASO much more than SOL now. SOL has way too much inventories. In stabilized financial situation, SOL maybe just fine though. But who knows where the market will go after this ER season.
I couldn't find any good entry point for JASO since last Friday. I will wait patiently.
Monday, April 13, 2009
bought 200 FAZ at 9.36
GS's ER announced today instead of tomorrow. That removed some uncertainties. Can't resist to test the water. Will sell all FAZ tomorrow no matter what.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Today!
Well, what a day!
1. I am kinda glad that my prediction of bank ER is right. However, it happened two days earlier than I expected. And it cost 20% of my FAZ.
2. My 200X USB was stopped out at 15.8, and the other 100X was sold at 17.43. I made a terrible mistake of holding FAZ for almost 2 weeks. The time decay itself has cost about 10% of the total value. Again, I was planning to clear my FAZ today or next Monday, but WFC ER completely messed up my plan. I will not hold any 3X ETF for more than two days from now on, but I plan to work on 2X ETFs. I will post a time decay sheet for 2X and 3X ETFs.
3. About this WFC ER: I think this is a great great news for the market. Think about the last two sustained big rallies: last July and this March (ongoing one), one started with WFC ER and one started with Citi's "money earning" memo. This is somewhat different from the rumors or stimulus from govenment, at least that's the way how the market sees it. I plan to buy on dip and sell on high in the next two weeks (before the bank stress test results).
4. It's very interesting how the financial market moves today. A few financial stocks (WFC, USB) opened high but they went south as soon as the market opened due to lots of selling pressure. However, overall finalcial sector remains almost unmoved (the price of FAZ stays pretty much flat until noon.) To me, it's like there's hugh buying power for other financial stocks, and after 1 pm, you know what happened... All finaicials are high in the sky.
5. I sold 500 X SOL for $3.80 due to weak ER of WFR and unexpected drop of Euro/USD rate. That's bad for SOL. I will check solar sector closely and I expect it to surge before their ER.
Performance: only play with small portion, broke even since blog started...
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pVQc9lW1NtIaQkf2viK93Jw&hl=en
1. I am kinda glad that my prediction of bank ER is right. However, it happened two days earlier than I expected. And it cost 20% of my FAZ.
2. My 200X USB was stopped out at 15.8, and the other 100X was sold at 17.43. I made a terrible mistake of holding FAZ for almost 2 weeks. The time decay itself has cost about 10% of the total value. Again, I was planning to clear my FAZ today or next Monday, but WFC ER completely messed up my plan. I will not hold any 3X ETF for more than two days from now on, but I plan to work on 2X ETFs. I will post a time decay sheet for 2X and 3X ETFs.
3. About this WFC ER: I think this is a great great news for the market. Think about the last two sustained big rallies: last July and this March (ongoing one), one started with WFC ER and one started with Citi's "money earning" memo. This is somewhat different from the rumors or stimulus from govenment, at least that's the way how the market sees it. I plan to buy on dip and sell on high in the next two weeks (before the bank stress test results).
4. It's very interesting how the financial market moves today. A few financial stocks (WFC, USB) opened high but they went south as soon as the market opened due to lots of selling pressure. However, overall finalcial sector remains almost unmoved (the price of FAZ stays pretty much flat until noon.) To me, it's like there's hugh buying power for other financial stocks, and after 1 pm, you know what happened... All finaicials are high in the sky.
5. I sold 500 X SOL for $3.80 due to weak ER of WFR and unexpected drop of Euro/USD rate. That's bad for SOL. I will check solar sector closely and I expect it to surge before their ER.
Performance: only play with small portion, broke even since blog started...
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pVQc9lW1NtIaQkf2viK93Jw&hl=en
It happened...
WFC guides above estimate...
This is huge. Cleared my FAZ. Loss $500.
Bought 1000 X SOL at $3.81 and 300 USB at $15.38
This is huge. Cleared my FAZ. Loss $500.
Bought 1000 X SOL at $3.81 and 300 USB at $15.38
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Rebooted...
Plan to sell FAZ tomorrow or next Monday. Next week is gonna be very choppy since ER season starts. The time decay of 3X ETF will be enormous.
I am very tempted to buy 100 shares of WFC to gamble through this ER. If tomorrow WFC dares to drop below $14...
Daytraded 100 USB for a profit of $5.
I am very nooby to this blogger thing. I was trying to post a google spreadsheet but somehow I couldn't find out how.
I am very tempted to buy 100 shares of WFC to gamble through this ER. If tomorrow WFC dares to drop below $14...
Daytraded 100 USB for a profit of $5.
I am very nooby to this blogger thing. I was trying to post a google spreadsheet but somehow I couldn't find out how.
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