从今天起开始短期小熊

bought 90 X SDS at $47.40

手中只有200 X DAL bought at $6.47,别的position都已经清空。

夜观天象：明天大盘好像不妙

八成要收红。Oh well.

Update:

current position:
200 X ENER @ $12.44
200 X OCNF @ $1.35
900 X PRGN @ $3.52 (Set 400X stop at $4.39)
100 X BBT @ $20.21

Update

Near term plan: buy dip!

Current position:

200 X ENER at $12.44

900 X PRGN at $ 3.53

Other positions were cleared at closed to average cost (bad stop) except EXM made 20% gain.

Bought 200 X ENER at 12.68

Others stay put.

Current Positions

100 EXM @ $6.75
600 PRGN @ $3.61
600 JASO @ $3.46
200 ARRY @ $2.78

I am paying close attention to solar sector and I suspect there will be very decent rebound in the coming days (no later than early next week).

I will load more JASO if it touches $3.00.

Local bottom

By NYADV and NYMO, The market is so oversold at this point so I am guessing a local bottom here. If tomorrow there's more down 0.5% - 1% (which I doubt will happen), it would be an ideal entry point.

$CPC didn't spike much at the close, so there's not much of panic selling.

I loaded 200 EXM @ $6.76 and 600 OCNF at $1.26. However, I sold OCNF after market for $1.35 for a quick small profit. +7%, couldn't resist it. I Will look for re-entry point tomorrow if possible.

夜观天象

明天大跌

很久没有看见这样全红的景象了

Preferred Stock - hide Mkt Cap

BWF 23.43 -0.27 (-1.14%) 1.47B
WFC-J 22.16 -0.19 (-0.85%) 2.04B
USB-K 20.88 -0.18 (-0.85%) 416.20M
JPM-I 25.26 -0.14 (-0.55%) 1.62B
C-W 15.50 -0.73 (-4.50%) 0.00
BAC-Y 15.65 -0.95 (-5.72%) 310.88M
WB-D 22.10 -0.31 (-1.38%) 654.93M

今天洁癖猫被stop out,决定暂时不碰金融股。

NYSI

Down trend again. Will it hold? I don't know.

In 100 JPM 33.46. Set a tight stop at 32.46.

Nothing exciting

I wasn't expecting the flat close two days in a row, especially for financial stocks. Still stay sidelined.

Breakout for Financial sector?

Financial sector has been pretty weak since the releasing of stress test results. Most of the banks issued new stocks and some are really heavily diluted. It's interesting that the major banks and the regional banks started to diverge now.

This coming week will be interesting for Financial stocks.

XLF took a round trip, what about FAZ?

-16%!!!

Confused and confused

Busy with work lately and Monday's surge made me lost on SDS and FAZ again. With the rally that we had in the past few days, now the intermediate trading signals turned bullish now. I really don't see a clear trend in this market now. I may do small amount of "buy on dip" and take profit aggressively. Next Monday maybe an important day for the bank stocks. Will keep an eye on it.

I am paying attention to the bulk shipping stocks such as EXM, DRYS, OCNF, as well as solar stocks.

Some Thoughts

This market is heavily news-driven lately. So if one does short-term trading, I think it's better to pay close attention to the coming economic data that may be releasing in the next few days. I'd try to avoid those trading days if I can. This market is heavily manipulated. However, we don't have much choice but to conform to that manipulation.

Bought 200 X FAZ @ $5.38

I am still playing with small amount.
Looking at so many intermediate down-trend indicator, I think it's a good bet for tomorrow.

Market Signals

Intermediate term: bearish from almost all indicators

Short-term (Friday):neutral

Still sidelined...

The market held up better than I thought it would today. Now all the short-term indicator is quite neutral. I will stay at sideline.

Waiting

Cleared JASO today. I don't feel like to gamble for tomorrow's ER. Took a loss.

I am somewhat bearish at this moment, however, I don't feel comfortable jumping in yet. Will stay sideline for now.

Cleared most of the position

Only hold 300 JASO and 100 SDTH.

The intermediate term picture has been changed. I may wait for a couple more days to confirm since this week is OE week. I will wait for good entry point for SDS/SRS/FAZ. I think SDS and SRS have lower risk/reward ratio than FAZ at this point.

论buffett不能倒掉--ws到底黑不黑 （转载）

http://www.gaofamily.com/viewtopic.php?t=9114&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=975

论buffett不能倒掉--ws到底黑不黑

定理：
1，赌场都是，不怕你赚钱，就怕你不来
2，沉迷炒股票的坚持到最后的都要输光。buffett是个唯一的例外，因为神不能倒

为什么？

因为股神虽然有过人之处，但股神的作用还是当托。把大家的钱都骗过来。而且向股神学习，作长线，买了不看，有耐心。股神示范两个方面：
1，你可以很轻松的投资。买了不看，省心省力。美国人最怕的就是雷。最弱的就是数字的基本算术。只有buffett这种方法，才能让那些怕费心的人把钱拿到市场给ws送钱。
2，你可以赚大钱。很省心能赚大钱。打开dow的图，长期是上涨的嘛。图可每标注，最早的dow成分股票29个公司早就破产了。ws把dow这个设计很幼稚的指数一直捧着，就是因为dow好操纵好骗人。

也就是说，ws的信条是，不怕你你水平高能赚钱，就怕你不来。你来了即使能赚钱，终究还是让你一场空。你来了，不赔光，基本你是不会走得。走了，可能还再来。

ws的本质是不创造价值。而是一个大赌场。不创造价值的意思是，虽然他们可以用这创新，那创新，paper money印很多，但真金白银ws根本不增加，而是不停的想尽办法往腰包里揣。

其实银行业我早发现是个好的就业行业。中国人人都没钱甚至没吃的时候。银行职员都是穿金戴银。银行会想尽办法，把游戏规则搞得自己先拿够。ws就更贪婪，目的是把所有真金白银全拿走，给你留一堆擦PG都嫌硬的废纸。

但这个行业骗了一代又一代人。骗光一代又一代。但走了这一代，还有下一代。靠的是什么？靠的就是buffett这个神作托。

都知道，真人不露相，市场上好的又价值的东西从来都是他们先利用完了，才往外边仍。好东西他们是不告诉你的。告诉你的都是用过的。真正有水平的人的观点，他们是从来不公开说的。公开说就是有目的的。

远的就不说了，就最近一个月市场大得几次起伏。一次大底的周一。一大早，市场把一个从来都是被HF和机构私下请去听他意见的。（他的看法当然是牛比的不得了。他这次危机从开始到最后都看得很准。很可惜他看得很准私下写的东西从不公开。而那个周一，市场把他极端看空的消息吹得满天飞。呵呵。具体含义很耐人寻味，请你自己深思背后的机制。

还有一个周一，那个soros出来说很看空。soros的看空我相信。他怎么做与他说的不一定一样。结果那个周一，市场大跌，从周二起开始连续暴涨。呵呵。具体含义很耐人寻味，请你自己深思背后的机制。

buffett看多。实际上，从不犯错误的股神。实际上这两年做的一踏糊涂。做出的决策错误的比正确的多得多。抄底总是抄早。买了跌去8，9成的也有。OIL， 对货币等的看法弱智的要命。根本不象股神。

我这一轮空的基本都是buffett的最爱。wfc/ge/gs。都赚了大钱。我当时也觉得股神可能要挺不过去了。股神公司的供票比sp500跌的还快。

股神的话被ws操纵的舆论什么时候叫得最响？一是股市马上要急剧下跌了，股神炒底啦就会出来。典型的就是这次股神抄gs的底。那时候我刚开始没多久。股神的话还有就是在他们买够了，市场需要大家来送钱买了，股神就又号召了。而且吹得更响。比如这周一wfc, 股神一通议论，说若规则允许，会把所有wfc的股票都买下。wfc一天涨了20%多。从20到24。这两天都知道了了，wfc 22作的offer。

过去起到股神作用的还有gs的科恩。这个最近7，8年已经基本一说就错，被解除了首分职务的，她上周也被请出来，给了sp 1150的目标价格。buffett本周被请出来，给了银行可以抄底的保票。

我上面列的消息都是被WS操纵的舆论猛烈选择曝光的。这些牛人好的研究结果是不会出来说的。被拿出来说的时候，都是需要大家贡献的时候。

我上便举了几个例子，回到为神秘股神不能倒。股神在危机中也是垃圾。做的决策不比最弱智的股市新手好。股神这个牛人的话，这个形象，ws控制的舆论可是要好好的珍惜的。而且是要拼命的造神。为的就是让你把钱送来，还不看。他们好往腰包揽真金白银，给你留下废纸和失业。所以，故神就是ws的饭碗，如果股神倒了，那他们可能真的骗不了一般人，只能骗傻瓜了。

Intermediate-term picture from NYSI

NYSI weekly has been quite accurate in finding intermediate-term trend ever since this crisis started in 07. So did $CPC MA13 (it has been working really well until this rally, and now it's indicating that the down trend may be starting again...).

Bulls have two more days to turn it around.
If NYSI indeed turns black after this Friday's close, I need to re-think which side I should be on.

Cleared 100 USB. Keeping the rest.

A new range: 880-960 ?

Tomorrow will be the key. If the down trend starts here, tomorrow will be at least - 2% (which I doubt it would happen).

I am looking for a new range here, probably 880-960. The market seems to somewhat stable for at least a short period of time. I am trying to buy dip in this period.

In 200 USB @ 18.17 and 500 JASO @ 3.75, 100 SOL @ 3.72

From $NYMO, tomorrow seems likely to be green. If not, bulls, we are in trouble.

Financial, Financial, and Financial...

Another 20% up for FAS today, unbelievable yet it happened again. I lost a little on FAZ (in 200 at $5.35, stopped at $4.93). Other than that, I didn't pay too much attention to the market today.

But looking back this week, there's HUGE buying power rushing in, a lot of them are institutional buyers. I understand this completely but the reason I went for FAZ today was the unemployment 8.9% annoucement. It's funny that 8.9% for 2009 is already the "adverse condition" for the stress test, and everyone knows that it's gonna increase more by year end. Doesn't it make the "stress test" not "stressful" enough?

However, the market ignored this, as usual. What can I do? I didn't have time to micromanage. Got stopped out at -8%.

In current sentiment, I really don't see anything other than GM bankruptcy may hammer down the market until next ER season. However, I am reluctant to long financials except for a couple picks with good entry point: USB, BK, and JPM.

I am waiting for solar ER season. I expect bad results and look for opportunities to load. I am interested in dry bulk shipping industry as well.

Today may be "The Day"

I mentioned earlier that it may take one day with gap up but close red to start the down trend. Let's see if that is the case.

It's still too dangerous to hold FAZ overnight. Most of the preferred shares are green today. Chances are, this is another "healthy pull-back" of financial stocks. However, there's limited room for a lot of financial giants like JPM and WFC. In this case, I'd rather stand on the sideline and only do daytrading when there's good entry point.

I daytraded FAZ and bought some "junk stocks" OCNF and ARRY.

Performance so far

Solar

SOLF rose the most among Chinese solar ADR today. I sold all my SOL today at $4.07. This Chinese solar rally may have a few pop, maybe 20%. But I'd rather be conservative at this point. Intermediate term, solar may have very very promising gain. I will look for re-entry point.

Lost a few on SDTH (又被IB害了一把，加上bad timing...)

当垃圾股满天飞的时候，顶已经不远了？

In 200 FAZ @ $6.46 for daytrade.

SOLF

Watch out for this one in the near future. Something big may come up.

Today's Bank rally is a bit too excessive, but hey, the market is always right, isn't it?

最近关心几个中概：太阳能，sdth (这个俺一直在等回调，nnd,就是没机会）, wx（观望中，不是很确定）。

NYSI 周线图

NYSI周线还没有转阴，做空应在等等。探顶比抄底难多了。

另外NYMO, CPC都是一副等消息的样子，下星期看看市场的sentiment会不会改变，如果市场反应好的话，以前数波的操作估计都不好用了，改做牛市的操作。

太阳能形式不明朗，FSLR和STP今天都跌了，不宜大赌。如果小赌的话，目前的favorate是SOL。

Next week

Not much excitement today. With volume so low for the whole week, the market is quitely waiting for the important week--next week. The stress test result will be a tricky one. With a good amount of information has already been leaked, I really don't know how the market will read the final result.

I cleared all my positions today. Wait and see what's coming. I am slightly bullish at this point. So I may buy dip before stress test result announcement if there's any good opportunity.

Nice run for solar today

I sold JASO today since it outperformed its peer today. Load a small amount (300) of SOLF. If tomorrow solar holds, we will be seeing a decent pre-ER run soon.

I am a little surprised that the market didn't sell off into Chrysler's news, and the delay of stress test result didn't stir anything up either. As many expect, I too think tomorrow maybe a gap down. I loaded 100 FAZ at 8.36 and may clear them tomorrow before market.

Solar time is coming... ...

Watch out for pre-ER runs, my picks are SOL, SOLF, and JASO. SOLF is famous for its pre-ER run, I was lucky to catch last two runs. I dont' expect this one will be as fabulous as the ones last year given the current solar product supply-over-demand situation. The revenue may be up but the profits will not be as pretty (if not ugly). Let's see what happens.

I missed the opportunity to load SOL today. I will hold on to JASO for now.

There will be plenty of opportunity to load, I don't want to chase high after FSLR's ER. This is like WFC's ER for Financial.

Bulls, you won

Seriously, the buying power of the bulls scared me, so bad that I moved up my stop to $65.3 (of course I got stopped out at the bottom of the day, again). One other reason that I don't want to hold short position for tomorrow is the GDP and Fed meetings. It's not gonna be pretty, for bears...

Bought 600 shares of JASO at $2.89.

Strong support at 855 today

It's amazing how strong the 855 support was today. Although I am still bearish in intermediate term, I begin to worry a little bit now. SDS stop was set at 882. My original plan was to sell SDS in this week.

A wild thought, I think it takes one day which gap up but with closing red to start the next down turn (if any soon.)

No more emotional trading

Looking back to my trading history, emotional trading has been probably the greatest enemy here. I will clear out UNG in the next few days. I have been doing some thinking and writting down some rules for trading. I think it's good to look at them once in a while for discipline purposes.

Lesson learned and some thoughts for this rally

First of all, I sold the JASO @ $3.23 and made a few bucks. Couldn't get a hold of SOL. Bought 100 X Natural gas ETFs UNG at $13.14. I will hold on to this for a while ( a few weeks to a couple months maybe?).

Anyways, I was thinking about this rally. It was really like the reversal of Feburary's downturn. The market keep heading south no matter what. Once in a while there was a rebounce, but it would be followed by a even bigger dip the next day. The market ignores any positive news (there weren't many, but still a few here and there). The market was way oversold, and it didn't matter. At that time, many people was waiting for a strong trigger, a positive trigger that is strong enough that would reverse the trend.

And there it came the Citi CEO's internal memo: CITI WAS MAKING PROFITS!!! and there it began...

Now it's kind of like what was happening two months ago, except that it's completely the opposite direction. The whole sentiment is so going north that it ignores any bad news. I thought the stress test results would give bulls some things to worry but it looks like I may be wrong. I guess if we don't have big + bad news, the market will stay above 780+. I am holding my SDS onto next Monday or Tuesday with a stop between 885. If the market rallies beyond that point, I will have to give up on bear for a while.

Next week the big news would be the Chrysler deal, unless the Fed jumps in again ... ...

Bought 500 X JASO @ $3.10

Small position. Will not hold more than a week. This is in reaction to recent rebounce in Euro/USD.

Bought 100 X SDS @ $66.78

Better entry point today. Will test water tomorrow.

Waiting and waiting

The market didn't hit 874 today with a high of 861. It looks like the down trend started to form. I almost added some SDS in after hour trading. However, it's not an excellent entry point at 843, and plus, I am more concerned with the possible earlier announcement of stress test results. It looks like Fed wanted to jump eagerly, and I don't want to gamble it.

During this rally, everytime the market was forming a top, some big news popped out: first, it was Fed announce pumping huge amount of money, then the bad-asset detail kicked in on the following Monday, then there was M2M and uptick short rule change, finally, WFC ER (not FED this time).

These events pretty much made up all my recent loss. Obviously, I am not good at gambling big events.

Zig-Zag Zig-Zag

Like I said yesterday, we gonna see these kind of Zig-Zag with greater extent, which I believe is the charater of a local top. Tomorrow is WFC's and MS's ER, I don't wanna mess with them, so I will only enter SDS if the market is over 874 ( that's +3%). The chance of hitting that is not very high, but it's good to be conservative.

One good thing about these 2X, 3X ETF is that you can calculate almost exactly at what SP500 or XLF price you wanna go in.

I expect those solar ADRs to drop at least 15% , then I will think of getting in. I would rather miss a rally than being trapped.

A top to this rally is near...

The market was bloody today. I wasn't expecting that much of a pull-back today. However, it sorta signals a top might be nearby though. Comparing to last May and August, this top will be similar as well. It won't be a sharp turning point, instead, it will be zig-zaging with a greater magnitude. Again, I will probably load some 3X long ETFs or 2X short ETFs when SP500 hits 820 or 890.

The releasing of stress test result is a killer. I start to really realize how much damage "rumors" or "uncertainties" could do to this market.

With so several intermediate-term indicator pointing to a big pull-back soon (if not crash), let's see how low it will go this time. It may start in less than 2 weeks... ...

My worst trade ever

Last Friday, I made my personal worst trade ever. Bought 400 C at 4.46 premarket and left it open during the day. Lost $300 when I close out at $3.71.

This is purely undisciplined. Emotional trade, poor entry point, didn't close position timely.

I will be trading less in the coming two weeks. Doing too much day-trade made me lost the big picture and missed several good opportunities. I will go back to intermediate-term trading. I will still be using overbought/oversold signal for short term trading. I will enter only there's extreme situations.

I think the market is going to head to a clear direction very soon (after ER or after May 4th). A possible significant pull-back may be close.

The market surprised me today

I was hoping FAS would touch $7 and activate my $7.18 limit order. However, after the initial drop, the buying power was way too strong.


I am expecting .spx would be in the range of 830~880 (maybe a little higher). I know a lot of people are expecting 800-850. I believe WFC pre-ER announcement is a very strong boost to this market in the ER season.


The FED's decision of releasing stress test result hurt BAC and C, obviously, at least for today. Again, it reminds the market that "some bank might still be bad". Now let's see how JPM's ER will be.



Now looking at CPC moving average. It's been very accurate in calling top and bottom ever since the financial crisis started in Fall 2007. However, it has not been accurate at all since this rally started. When was the last time this indicator not working? check 06 and 07... ...

Sold FAS at $7.6

I will set a limit order around $7, hope it can fill today.

Bought 200 FAS at $7.52

The aftermarket price was not bad. I guess I like gambling a little too much ... ...

FAZ stopped out @ $9.6

Again, I need to learn when and where to set the stop.

I think this pull back is quite healthy, same old trick as last couple ones in recent weeks.

I am waiting the market to pull back a little more to long Financials.

Again, I am talking about day-trades.

About solar, I like JASO much more than SOL now. SOL has way too much inventories. In stabilized financial situation, SOL maybe just fine though. But who knows where the market will go after this ER season.

I couldn't find any good entry point for JASO since last Friday. I will wait patiently.

bought 200 FAZ at 9.36

GS's ER announced today instead of tomorrow. That removed some uncertainties. Can't resist to test the water. Will sell all FAZ tomorrow no matter what.

3X ETFs

Imagine holding these ETFs while going through a couple +5% -5% cycles...

Today!

Well, what a day!

1. I am kinda glad that my prediction of bank ER is right. However, it happened two days earlier than I expected. And it cost 20% of my FAZ.

2. My 200X USB was stopped out at 15.8, and the other 100X was sold at 17.43. I made a terrible mistake of holding FAZ for almost 2 weeks. The time decay itself has cost about 10% of the total value. Again, I was planning to clear my FAZ today or next Monday, but WFC ER completely messed up my plan. I will not hold any 3X ETF for more than two days from now on, but I plan to work on 2X ETFs. I will post a time decay sheet for 2X and 3X ETFs.

3. About this WFC ER: I think this is a great great news for the market. Think about the last two sustained big rallies: last July and this March (ongoing one), one started with WFC ER and one started with Citi's "money earning" memo. This is somewhat different from the rumors or stimulus from govenment, at least that's the way how the market sees it. I plan to buy on dip and sell on high in the next two weeks (before the bank stress test results).

4. It's very interesting how the financial market moves today. A few financial stocks (WFC, USB) opened high but they went south as soon as the market opened due to lots of selling pressure. However, overall finalcial sector remains almost unmoved (the price of FAZ stays pretty much flat until noon.) To me, it's like there's hugh buying power for other financial stocks, and after 1 pm, you know what happened... All finaicials are high in the sky.

5. I sold 500 X SOL for $3.80 due to weak ER of WFR and unexpected drop of Euro/USD rate. That's bad for SOL. I will check solar sector closely and I expect it to surge before their ER.

Performance: only play with small portion, broke even since blog started...

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pVQc9lW1NtIaQkf2viK93Jw&hl=en

It happened...

WFC guides above estimate...

This is huge. Cleared my FAZ. Loss $500.

Bought 1000 X SOL at $3.81 and 300 USB at $15.38

Rebooted...

Plan to sell FAZ tomorrow or next Monday. Next week is gonna be very choppy since ER season starts. The time decay of 3X ETF will be enormous.

I am very tempted to buy 100 shares of WFC to gamble through this ER. If tomorrow WFC dares to drop below $14...

Daytraded 100 USB for a profit of $5.

I am very nooby to this blogger thing. I was trying to post a google spreadsheet but somehow I couldn't find out how.