Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Some Thoughts
This market is heavily news-driven lately. So if one does short-term trading, I think it's better to pay close attention to the coming economic data that may be releasing in the next few days. I'd try to avoid those trading days if I can. This market is heavily manipulated. However, we don't have much choice but to conform to that manipulation.
Bought 200 X FAZ @ $5.38
I am still playing with small amount.
Looking at so many intermediate down-trend indicator, I think it's a good bet for tomorrow.
Looking at so many intermediate down-trend indicator, I think it's a good bet for tomorrow.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Still sidelined...
The market held up better than I thought it would today. Now all the short-term indicator is quite neutral. I will stay at sideline.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Waiting
Cleared JASO today. I don't feel like to gamble for tomorrow's ER. Took a loss.
I am somewhat bearish at this moment, however, I don't feel comfortable jumping in yet. Will stay sideline for now.
I am somewhat bearish at this moment, however, I don't feel comfortable jumping in yet. Will stay sideline for now.
Friday, May 15, 2009
Cleared most of the position
Only hold 300 JASO and 100 SDTH.
The intermediate term picture has been changed. I may wait for a couple more days to confirm since this week is OE week. I will wait for good entry point for SDS/SRS/FAZ. I think SDS and SRS have lower risk/reward ratio than FAZ at this point.
The intermediate term picture has been changed. I may wait for a couple more days to confirm since this week is OE week. I will wait for good entry point for SDS/SRS/FAZ. I think SDS and SRS have lower risk/reward ratio than FAZ at this point.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
论buffett不能倒掉--ws到底黑不黑 （转载）
http://www.gaofamily.com/viewtopic.php?t=9114&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=975
论buffett不能倒掉--ws到底黑不黑
定理：
1，赌场都是，不怕你赚钱，就怕你不来
2，沉迷炒股票的坚持到最后的都要输光。buffett是个唯一的例外，因为神不能倒
为什么？
因为股神虽然有过人之处，但股神的作用还是当托。把大家的钱都骗过来。而且向股神学习，作长线，买了不看，有耐心。股神示范两个方面：
1，你可以很轻松的投资。买了不看，省心省力。美国人最怕的就是雷。最弱的就是数字的基本算术。只有buffett这种方法，才能让那些怕费心的人把钱拿到市场给ws送钱。
2，你可以赚大钱。很省心能赚大钱。打开dow的图，长期是上涨的嘛。图可每标注，最早的dow成分股票29个公司早就破产了。ws把dow这个设计很幼稚的指数一直捧着，就是因为dow好操纵好骗人。
也就是说，ws的信条是，不怕你你水平高能赚钱，就怕你不来。你来了即使能赚钱，终究还是让你一场空。你来了，不赔光，基本你是不会走得。走了，可能还再来。
ws的本质是不创造价值。而是一个大赌场。不创造价值的意思是，虽然他们可以用这创新，那创新，paper money印很多，但真金白银ws根本不增加，而是不停的想尽办法往腰包里揣。
其实银行业我早发现是个好的就业行业。中国人人都没钱甚至没吃的时候。银行职员都是穿金戴银。银行会想尽办法，把游戏规则搞得自己先拿够。ws就更贪婪，目的是把所有真金白银全拿走，给你留一堆擦PG都嫌硬的废纸。
但这个行业骗了一代又一代人。骗光一代又一代。但走了这一代，还有下一代。靠的是什么？靠的就是buffett这个神作托。
都知道，真人不露相，市场上好的又价值的东西从来都是他们先利用完了，才往外边仍。好东西他们是不告诉你的。告诉你的都是用过的。真正有水平的人的观点，他们是从来不公开说的。公开说就是有目的的。
远的就不说了，就最近一个月市场大得几次起伏。一次大底的周一。一大早，市场把一个从来都是被HF和机构私下请去听他意见的。（他的看法当然是牛比的不得了。他这次危机从开始到最后都看得很准。很可惜他看得很准私下写的东西从不公开。而那个周一，市场把他极端看空的消息吹得满天飞。呵呵。具体含义很耐人寻味，请你自己深思背后的机制。
还有一个周一，那个soros出来说很看空。soros的看空我相信。他怎么做与他说的不一定一样。结果那个周一，市场大跌，从周二起开始连续暴涨。呵呵。具体含义很耐人寻味，请你自己深思背后的机制。
buffett看多。实际上，从不犯错误的股神。实际上这两年做的一踏糊涂。做出的决策错误的比正确的多得多。抄底总是抄早。买了跌去8，9成的也有。OIL， 对货币等的看法弱智的要命。根本不象股神。
我这一轮空的基本都是buffett的最爱。wfc/ge/gs。都赚了大钱。我当时也觉得股神可能要挺不过去了。股神公司的供票比sp500跌的还快。
股神的话被ws操纵的舆论什么时候叫得最响？一是股市马上要急剧下跌了，股神炒底啦就会出来。典型的就是这次股神抄gs的底。那时候我刚开始没多久。股神的话还有就是在他们买够了，市场需要大家来送钱买了，股神就又号召了。而且吹得更响。比如这周一wfc, 股神一通议论，说若规则允许，会把所有wfc的股票都买下。wfc一天涨了20%多。从20到24。这两天都知道了了，wfc 22作的offer。
过去起到股神作用的还有gs的科恩。这个最近7，8年已经基本一说就错，被解除了首分职务的，她上周也被请出来，给了sp 1150的目标价格。buffett本周被请出来，给了银行可以抄底的保票。
我上面列的消息都是被WS操纵的舆论猛烈选择曝光的。这些牛人好的研究结果是不会出来说的。被拿出来说的时候，都是需要大家贡献的时候。
我上便举了几个例子，回到为神秘股神不能倒。股神在危机中也是垃圾。做的决策不比最弱智的股市新手好。股神这个牛人的话，这个形象，ws控制的舆论可是要好好的珍惜的。而且是要拼命的造神。为的就是让你把钱送来，还不看。他们好往腰包揽真金白银，给你留下废纸和失业。所以，故神就是ws的饭碗，如果股神倒了，那他们可能真的骗不了一般人，只能骗傻瓜了。
论buffett不能倒掉--ws到底黑不黑
定理：
1，赌场都是，不怕你赚钱，就怕你不来
2，沉迷炒股票的坚持到最后的都要输光。buffett是个唯一的例外，因为神不能倒
为什么？
因为股神虽然有过人之处，但股神的作用还是当托。把大家的钱都骗过来。而且向股神学习，作长线，买了不看，有耐心。股神示范两个方面：
1，你可以很轻松的投资。买了不看，省心省力。美国人最怕的就是雷。最弱的就是数字的基本算术。只有buffett这种方法，才能让那些怕费心的人把钱拿到市场给ws送钱。
2，你可以赚大钱。很省心能赚大钱。打开dow的图，长期是上涨的嘛。图可每标注，最早的dow成分股票29个公司早就破产了。ws把dow这个设计很幼稚的指数一直捧着，就是因为dow好操纵好骗人。
也就是说，ws的信条是，不怕你你水平高能赚钱，就怕你不来。你来了即使能赚钱，终究还是让你一场空。你来了，不赔光，基本你是不会走得。走了，可能还再来。
ws的本质是不创造价值。而是一个大赌场。不创造价值的意思是，虽然他们可以用这创新，那创新，paper money印很多，但真金白银ws根本不增加，而是不停的想尽办法往腰包里揣。
其实银行业我早发现是个好的就业行业。中国人人都没钱甚至没吃的时候。银行职员都是穿金戴银。银行会想尽办法，把游戏规则搞得自己先拿够。ws就更贪婪，目的是把所有真金白银全拿走，给你留一堆擦PG都嫌硬的废纸。
但这个行业骗了一代又一代人。骗光一代又一代。但走了这一代，还有下一代。靠的是什么？靠的就是buffett这个神作托。
都知道，真人不露相，市场上好的又价值的东西从来都是他们先利用完了，才往外边仍。好东西他们是不告诉你的。告诉你的都是用过的。真正有水平的人的观点，他们是从来不公开说的。公开说就是有目的的。
远的就不说了，就最近一个月市场大得几次起伏。一次大底的周一。一大早，市场把一个从来都是被HF和机构私下请去听他意见的。（他的看法当然是牛比的不得了。他这次危机从开始到最后都看得很准。很可惜他看得很准私下写的东西从不公开。而那个周一，市场把他极端看空的消息吹得满天飞。呵呵。具体含义很耐人寻味，请你自己深思背后的机制。
还有一个周一，那个soros出来说很看空。soros的看空我相信。他怎么做与他说的不一定一样。结果那个周一，市场大跌，从周二起开始连续暴涨。呵呵。具体含义很耐人寻味，请你自己深思背后的机制。
buffett看多。实际上，从不犯错误的股神。实际上这两年做的一踏糊涂。做出的决策错误的比正确的多得多。抄底总是抄早。买了跌去8，9成的也有。OIL， 对货币等的看法弱智的要命。根本不象股神。
我这一轮空的基本都是buffett的最爱。wfc/ge/gs。都赚了大钱。我当时也觉得股神可能要挺不过去了。股神公司的供票比sp500跌的还快。
股神的话被ws操纵的舆论什么时候叫得最响？一是股市马上要急剧下跌了，股神炒底啦就会出来。典型的就是这次股神抄gs的底。那时候我刚开始没多久。股神的话还有就是在他们买够了，市场需要大家来送钱买了，股神就又号召了。而且吹得更响。比如这周一wfc, 股神一通议论，说若规则允许，会把所有wfc的股票都买下。wfc一天涨了20%多。从20到24。这两天都知道了了，wfc 22作的offer。
过去起到股神作用的还有gs的科恩。这个最近7，8年已经基本一说就错，被解除了首分职务的，她上周也被请出来，给了sp 1150的目标价格。buffett本周被请出来，给了银行可以抄底的保票。
我上面列的消息都是被WS操纵的舆论猛烈选择曝光的。这些牛人好的研究结果是不会出来说的。被拿出来说的时候，都是需要大家贡献的时候。
我上便举了几个例子，回到为神秘股神不能倒。股神在危机中也是垃圾。做的决策不比最弱智的股市新手好。股神这个牛人的话，这个形象，ws控制的舆论可是要好好的珍惜的。而且是要拼命的造神。为的就是让你把钱送来，还不看。他们好往腰包揽真金白银，给你留下废纸和失业。所以，故神就是ws的饭碗，如果股神倒了，那他们可能真的骗不了一般人，只能骗傻瓜了。
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Intermediate-term picture from NYSI
NYSI weekly has been quite accurate in finding intermediate-term trend ever since this crisis started in 07. So did $CPC MA13 (it has been working really well until this rally, and now it's indicating that the down trend may be starting again...).
Bulls have two more days to turn it around.
If NYSI indeed turns black after this Friday's close, I need to re-think which side I should be on.
Cleared 100 USB. Keeping the rest.
Bulls have two more days to turn it around.
If NYSI indeed turns black after this Friday's close, I need to re-think which side I should be on.
Cleared 100 USB. Keeping the rest.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
A new range: 880-960 ?
Tomorrow will be the key. If the down trend starts here, tomorrow will be at least - 2% (which I doubt it would happen).
I am looking for a new range here, probably 880-960. The market seems to somewhat stable for at least a short period of time. I am trying to buy dip in this period.
In 200 USB @ 18.17 and 500 JASO @ 3.75, 100 SOL @ 3.72
From $NYMO, tomorrow seems likely to be green. If not, bulls, we are in trouble.
I am looking for a new range here, probably 880-960. The market seems to somewhat stable for at least a short period of time. I am trying to buy dip in this period.
In 200 USB @ 18.17 and 500 JASO @ 3.75, 100 SOL @ 3.72
From $NYMO, tomorrow seems likely to be green. If not, bulls, we are in trouble.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Financial, Financial, and Financial...
Another 20% up for FAS today, unbelievable yet it happened again. I lost a little on FAZ (in 200 at $5.35, stopped at $4.93). Other than that, I didn't pay too much attention to the market today.
But looking back this week, there's HUGE buying power rushing in, a lot of them are institutional buyers. I understand this completely but the reason I went for FAZ today was the unemployment 8.9% annoucement. It's funny that 8.9% for 2009 is already the "adverse condition" for the stress test, and everyone knows that it's gonna increase more by year end. Doesn't it make the "stress test" not "stressful" enough?
However, the market ignored this, as usual. What can I do? I didn't have time to micromanage. Got stopped out at -8%.
In current sentiment, I really don't see anything other than GM bankruptcy may hammer down the market until next ER season. However, I am reluctant to long financials except for a couple picks with good entry point: USB, BK, and JPM.
I am waiting for solar ER season. I expect bad results and look for opportunities to load. I am interested in dry bulk shipping industry as well.
But looking back this week, there's HUGE buying power rushing in, a lot of them are institutional buyers. I understand this completely but the reason I went for FAZ today was the unemployment 8.9% annoucement. It's funny that 8.9% for 2009 is already the "adverse condition" for the stress test, and everyone knows that it's gonna increase more by year end. Doesn't it make the "stress test" not "stressful" enough?
However, the market ignored this, as usual. What can I do? I didn't have time to micromanage. Got stopped out at -8%.
In current sentiment, I really don't see anything other than GM bankruptcy may hammer down the market until next ER season. However, I am reluctant to long financials except for a couple picks with good entry point: USB, BK, and JPM.
I am waiting for solar ER season. I expect bad results and look for opportunities to load. I am interested in dry bulk shipping industry as well.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Today may be "The Day"
I mentioned earlier that it may take one day with gap up but close red to start the down trend. Let's see if that is the case.
It's still too dangerous to hold FAZ overnight. Most of the preferred shares are green today. Chances are, this is another "healthy pull-back" of financial stocks. However, there's limited room for a lot of financial giants like JPM and WFC. In this case, I'd rather stand on the sideline and only do daytrading when there's good entry point.
I daytraded FAZ and bought some "junk stocks" OCNF and ARRY.
It's still too dangerous to hold FAZ overnight. Most of the preferred shares are green today. Chances are, this is another "healthy pull-back" of financial stocks. However, there's limited room for a lot of financial giants like JPM and WFC. In this case, I'd rather stand on the sideline and only do daytrading when there's good entry point.
I daytraded FAZ and bought some "junk stocks" OCNF and ARRY.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Solar
SOLF rose the most among Chinese solar ADR today. I sold all my SOL today at $4.07. This Chinese solar rally may have a few pop, maybe 20%. But I'd rather be conservative at this point. Intermediate term, solar may have very very promising gain. I will look for re-entry point.
Lost a few on SDTH (又被IB害了一把，加上bad timing...)
当垃圾股满天飞的时候，顶已经不远了？
In 200 FAZ @ $6.46 for daytrade.
Lost a few on SDTH (又被IB害了一把，加上bad timing...)
当垃圾股满天飞的时候，顶已经不远了？
In 200 FAZ @ $6.46 for daytrade.
Monday, May 4, 2009
SOLF
Watch out for this one in the near future. Something big may come up.
Today's Bank rally is a bit too excessive, but hey, the market is always right, isn't it?
最近关心几个中概：太阳能，sdth (这个俺一直在等回调，nnd,就是没机会）, wx（观望中，不是很确定）。
Today's Bank rally is a bit too excessive, but hey, the market is always right, isn't it?
最近关心几个中概：太阳能，sdth (这个俺一直在等回调，nnd,就是没机会）, wx（观望中，不是很确定）。
Saturday, May 2, 2009
NYSI 周线图
NYSI周线还没有转阴，做空应在等等。探顶比抄底难多了。
另外NYMO, CPC都是一副等消息的样子，下星期看看市场的sentiment会不会改变，如果市场反应好的话，以前数波的操作估计都不好用了，改做牛市的操作。
太阳能形式不明朗，FSLR和STP今天都跌了，不宜大赌。如果小赌的话，目前的favorate是SOL。
Friday, May 1, 2009
Next week
Not much excitement today. With volume so low for the whole week, the market is quitely waiting for the important week--next week. The stress test result will be a tricky one. With a good amount of information has already been leaked, I really don't know how the market will read the final result.
I cleared all my positions today. Wait and see what's coming. I am slightly bullish at this point. So I may buy dip before stress test result announcement if there's any good opportunity.
I cleared all my positions today. Wait and see what's coming. I am slightly bullish at this point. So I may buy dip before stress test result announcement if there's any good opportunity.
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